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America betting against the house

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America betting against the house

The month of August is a time for reflection in financial markets. Volumes decline, as investors in the US and Europe take summer vacations. Those left behind have the leisure to reflect on longer term trends and risks in the world economy. This year, the collective focus of the international investment community has been on housing - specifically the US housing market - and what that sector may mean for the global economy.

US housing has exerted several positive influences on the US economy: employment; direct consumption; refinancing; wealth effects. Housing allowed consumer spending to remain strong, even in periods when household income growth has moderated. This in turn has made sure that the US economy has not had a consumer led recession since 1991 (an unusually long period).

The problem is that house prices and housing activity, have moderated significantly this summer. In fact, UBS Investment Bank would go as far as to say that the housing sector of the US economy is in a recession. Existing home prices were rising over 10% a year for most of 2005 - now they are barely moving.

More : bangkokpost.com

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